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Deloitte projects November–January holiday retail sales of about $1.7 trillion, with an alternate scenario at $1.71 trillion. The firm expects e-commerce to rise 7.5%–8.4% year over year, with online spending at $318.9 billion in one scenario and $361.1 billion in the other; last year’s online spend was $294 billion, Deloitte said. Bain & Company offers a companion forecast that anticipates U.S. holiday sales topping $1 trillion on a 4.5% year‑over‑year gain.
Key takeaways
- Deloitte projects holiday retail sales for Nov–Jan at $1.7 trillion, with a second estimate at $1.71 trillion.
- Deloitte expects e-commerce growth of 7.5%–8.4% year over year, with online spending cited at $318.9 billion and $361.1 billion in its scenarios.
- Last year’s online holiday spend was $294 billion, cited in a press release.
- Bain & Company separately forecasts U.S. holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion, expecting a 4.5% year‑over‑year increase.
Table of contents
How Deloitte frames the 2026 holiday season
Deloitte offers two close scenarios for holiday retail sales covering the November through January period: one at $1.7 trillion and a marginally higher outcome at $1.71 trillion. The firm pairs each top‑line estimate with an e-commerce projection that diverges notably: one scenario lists online spending at $318.9 billion, the other at $361.1 billion.
Those e‑commerce figures map against year‑over‑year growth rates Deloitte gives as a 7.5% to 8.4% rise. The report places last season’s online holiday spend at $294 billion, a baseline the firm cites in a press release when framing the projected increases. Deloitte’s twin scenarios are presented as alternative demand paths rather than a single point forecast.
Where Deloitte’s numbers sit beside Bain’s forecast
Bain & Company’s annual U.S. holiday forecast, published at the same seasonal moment, highlights a different headline: sales topping $1 trillion for the U.S. market and a 4.5% year‑over‑year increase. That $1 trillion threshold is a national retail milestone Bain emphasises; Deloitte’s $1.7 trillion figure covers the broader November-to‑January retail season and explicitly separates online from total retail.
The distinction is largely one of scope and planning focus. Deloitte breaks out two explicit e‑commerce dollar outcomes ($318.9 billion and $361.1 billion) tied to 7.5%–8.4% growth, which is material for channel mix and online capacity planning. Bain centers its headline on the aggregate percentage rise that drives the projection of surpassing $1 trillion.
What retailers and planners should take from these projections
The central commercial implication is simple: online demand is expected to expand materially over last year’s $294 billion online holiday spend. Whether retailers plan for the lower e‑commerce outcome ($318.9 billion) or the higher one ($361.1 billion) will change inventory allocations, staffing for fulfillment, and marketing cadence across November into January.
Operationally, a 7.5%–8.4% e‑commerce increase implies heavier pressure on delivery windows and returns handling when compared with a static plan. Even absent finer category breakdowns in the release cited, the two Deloitte scenarios provide concrete dollar benchmarks retailers can use to test capacity and merchandising choices for the season.
| Source | Headline number | E-commerce detail | Growth basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deloitte | $1.7T / $1.71T (Nov–Jan) | $318.9B or $361.1B | E‑commerce +7.5%–8.4% |
| Bain & Company | Exceed $1T (U.S.) | Not broken out in headline | Overall +4.5% yoy |
Cases for and against the upside
The case for
- Higher consumer comfort with online shopping would push e‑commerce toward the $361.1 billion scenario, amplifying the 8.4% growth leg Deloitte cites.
- If macro spending holds and discretionary budgets recover, total Nov–Jan retail could reach the $1.71 trillion outcome Deloitte models.
The case against
- A pullback in discretionary spending or worse logistics disruptions would push outcomes toward the lower Deloitte scenario ($1.7 trillion and $318.9 billion online).
- Smaller promotional efficiency or lower consumer confidence could keep aggregate gains nearer to Bain’s more conservative 4.5% figure for overall holiday sales.
What to be careful about
- The Deloitte figures rest on scenarios rather than a single prediction; treating one scenario as certain risks over‑ or under‑preparing inventory and fulfillment.
- E‑commerce projections assume available capacity in delivery and returns; disruptions there would magnify costs even if dollar sales reach projected levels.
- Differences in scope between Deloitte’s Nov–Jan season totals and Bain’s U.S. $1 trillion headline can lead to double‑counting or misread market size if not reconciled.
The bottom line
Deloitte and Bain offer concurrent forecasts pointing to holiday growth but with different emphases. Deloitte sets out two near‑term season totals — $1.7 trillion and $1.71 trillion — each tied to a specific e‑commerce estimate ($318.9 billion and $361.1 billion). Bain emphasizes an overall U.S. milestone above $1 trillion supported by a 4.5% gain. Retailers should use Deloitte’s dollar scenarios as concrete stress tests for inventory, fulfilment and returns capacity and reconcile those with Bain’s aggregate demand assumption when planning promotions and staffing for November through January.
What to watch
- watch for Deloitte’s full holiday retail report release; no date has been set.
- watch for Bain & Company’s detailed holiday forecast publication and methodology; no date has been set.
- watch for major retailers’ November earnings and early‑January sales reports to see which Deloitte scenario aligns with actual volume; no specific dates have been provided.
Frequently asked questions
How much does Deloitte expect holiday retail sales to total?
Deloitte outlines two close outcomes for the November–January season: $1.7 trillion in one scenario and $1.71 trillion in another.
What are Deloitte’s e-commerce forecasts for the season?
Deloitte gives e‑commerce growth of 7.5%–8.4% year over year, citing online spending of $318.9 billion in one scenario and $361.1 billion in the other.
How does Bain’s forecast compare?
Bain & Company projects U.S. holiday sales will exceed $1 trillion, based on an expected 4.5% year‑over‑year increase, a different scope and framing from Deloitte’s Nov–Jan seasonal totals.
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