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Bain & Company projects US holiday sales could exceed $1 trillion for the first time as retail spending rises in the November–December season. Bain’s forecast estimates retail sales will grow 4.5% year over year and predicts non-store (online) sales will grow 9.9% compared with a year ago. The house view in the firm’s press release also notes that in-store purchases still account for the majority of holiday spending — about 70% of the season — even as online accelerates. The forecast highlights clothing and accessories and health and personal care as the strongest-performing categories.
The key for retailers is to make the most of the crucial holiday season by striking the right balance when it comes to price and promotions, and to making the most of new AI capabilities to enhance the customer experience and get ahead of competitors.
Aaron Cheris, partner at Bain & Company and global head of the firm's retail practice
Key takeaways
- Bain & Company forecasts US holiday sales could exceed $1 trillion for the first time.
- Bain projects retail sales will climb 4.5% year over year across the November–December shopping season.
- Non-store (online) sales are predicted to grow 9.9% compared with a year ago, according to the firm’s press release.
- Bain’s data shows in-store sales still drive about 70% of holiday season spending.
Table of contents
Bain’s headline numbers: growth and the $1 trillion milestone
Bain & Company’s annual U.S. retail holiday forecast puts this year’s season on track to exceed $1 trillion, a first for the industry. The projection rests on two headline metrics the firm released: retail sales estimated to grow 4.5% year over year for the November–December period, and non-store sales growth of 9.9% compared with a year ago.
Those percentages are the foundation of Bain’s dollar projection and explain why the firm characterises the season as milestone-reaching even while warning of pressures beneath the surface. The forecast comes in a Bain press release that highlights category mix, channel shifts and the operational choices retailers must make to capture demand.
Where the demand is concentrated: online gains, still a majority in stores
Bain’s release signals that online buying will accelerate this season, with non-store sales predicted to grow 9.9% year over year. That acceleration is concentrated in clothing and accessories and in health and personal care, the firm says, which it identifies as the categories most likely to outpace the broader market.
At the same time, Bain’s data shows in-store purchases continue to dominate total holiday spending: about 70% of the season is driven by brick-and-mortar sales. The coexistence of strong online growth and a large in-store share sets a tactical problem for retailers: they must execute across channels rather than treat one as a clear substitute for the other.
Retailer responses: price, promotions and deploying AI
Aaron Cheris, a partner at Bain & Company who heads the firm's global retail practice, warns that the trillion-dollar headline hides strains that could compress margins. He says the central choices facing retailers will be how they control pricing and promotions while meeting elevated demand.
Cheris also points to technology as a tactical lever. In Bain’s phrasing, retailers should make the most of new AI capabilities to enhance the customer experience and get ahead of competitors — a call that frames investment in targeting, personalization and supply-chain insight as a way to defend margins while participating in the sales upside.
| Measure | Bain forecast |
|---|---|
| Holiday season total | Could exceed $1 trillion |
| Retail sales growth (Nov–Dec) | 4.5% year over year |
| Non-store (online) sales growth | 9.9% year over year |
| Share driven by in-store | About 70% |
How the season could play out
The case for
- Higher overall spending: a 4.5% rise in retail sales would lift the season to a possible $1 trillion-plus total.
- Channel expansion: 9.9% growth in non-store sales could raise average basket and frequency in key online categories such as clothing and health and personal care.
The case against
- Margin pressure from promotions and price competition, a risk Aaron Cheris explicitly flagged as something that could temper bottom lines.
- Execution risk across channels: with about 70% of spending still in stores, retailers that mismanage inventory or in-store experience may lose share despite online gains.
What to be careful about
- Promotional intensity and price competition could erode margins, as Aaron Cheris warned in Bain’s release.
- Operational strain from concurrent online growth and heavy in-store demand could create stockouts or poor service in one channel.
- Falling short on AI or personalization investments could leave retailers unable to capture higher-margin sales the forecast implies.
The bottom line
Bain & Company’s forecast frames this holiday season as a milestone: a possible $1 trillion-plus total built on 4.5% retail growth and a near-10% jump in non-store sales. The projection does not eliminate risks; Bain and its partner Aaron Cheris point to promotion and pricing choices and the effective use of AI as decisive factors for whether retailers translate higher demand into healthy profit. For executives, the practical takeaway is simple: capture the sales upside while guarding margins through smarter promotion, better inventory execution across channels and selective technology investment.
What to watch
- Watch retailers’ November and December sales tallies and company results; no exact consolidated reporting date has been set.
- Watch category results for clothing and accessories and for health and personal care during the season; no date has been set for a final category tally.
- Watch for follow-up detail from Bain & Company on methodology and channel-level dollar estimates; no future release date has been set.
Frequently asked questions
Why does Bain say US holiday sales could exceed $1 trillion?
Bain’s forecast combines an estimated 4.5% year‑over‑year rise in retail sales during November–December with faster online growth; the firm also highlights a strong showing in clothing and accessories and health and personal care as contributors.
How much of holiday spending still happens in stores?
Bain’s data shows in-store sales drive about 70% of the holiday season, even as non-store sales are forecast to grow 9.9% year over year.
What should retailers focus on to capture the forecasted gains?
Aaron Cheris at Bain advises striking the right balance on price and promotions and investing in new AI capabilities to improve customer experience and competitive positioning.
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