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AlixPartners projects U.S. holiday sales could increase between 4% and 7% this season, even as consumer sentiment weakens. The projection appears in AlixPartners' 2026 U.S. Retail Holiday Outlook and sits alongside survey findings that 57% of consumers view the economy as worse than a year ago. At the same time, Census data show actual spending has averaged roughly 5% above prior-year levels each month through 2026. The gap between consumers’ stated intent and their spending so far this year is the central tension for retailers planning promotions, inventory and staffing for the holiday period.
While most of our clients have seen noticeable declines in traffic as new disruptions hit the consumer, time and time again they show back up. Our data is showing us that they are finding more and more creative ways to continue spending.
Bryan Eshelman, Americas lead of retail at AlixPartners
Key takeaways
- Forecast: AlixPartners projects U.S. holiday sales will grow 4% to 7% in 2026, per its 2026 U.S. Retail Holiday Outlook.
- Consumer sentiment: AlixPartners found 57% of consumers view the economy as worse than 12 months ago.
- Spending intent: Thirty-seven percent of consumers polled say they intend to spend less this holiday season.
- Actual spending: Census data show spending has averaged roughly 5% above prior-year levels each month throughout 2026.
Table of contents
AlixPartners' projection: 4%–7% growth and its source
AlixPartners places the U.S. holiday sales projection at a 4% to 7% increase and published that finding as part of its 2026 U.S. Retail Holiday Outlook. The consultancy released the outlook alongside survey results and commentary aimed at helping retailers size demand and plan promotions for the season. Naming the forecast and the study ties the headline number directly to a known firm rather than to an anonymous estimate.
Using a named industry forecast gives retailers a benchmark for planning sales, staffing and inventory levels. The projection is a range, not a single target, which reflects uncertainty in consumer behaviour and the differing performance across product categories and channels.
Why consumer intent and actual spending point different ways
AlixPartners' survey reports that 37% of consumers intend to spend less this holiday season, yet Census data show spending has averaged roughly 5% above prior-year levels each month through 2026. That divergence — stated intent versus revealed behaviour — matters because intentions shape sentiment and headlines, while actual spending determines revenue. Retailers that rely only on the survey-driven narrative of tightening wallets risk understating demand if spending patterns continue to outpace intentions.
This split can reflect several mechanisms the data do not fully resolve: shoppers trimming the number of transactions while increasing basket size in key categories, timing purchases to promotions, or shifting spend between channels. The data points are named and limited; the projection combines those signals rather than resolving the cause behind them.
What the findings mean for retailers planning the season
Bryan Eshelman, Americas lead of retail at AlixPartners, frames the practical problem: retailers face declining sentiment even as customers keep showing up. Eshelman says, "While most of our clients have seen noticeable declines in traffic as new disruptions hit the consumer, time and time again they show back up. Our data is showing us that they are finding more and more creative ways to continue spending." That quote encapsulates why AlixPartners issues a positive sales range despite weaker consumer confidence.
For retailers the implication is tactical: plan for a modest increase in demand while retaining flexibility. Inventory buys, promotion calendars and temporary staffing plans should reflect the 4%–7% range but include contingency for category- and store-level variation, because the outlook is a US-level range and does not guarantee uniform performance across formats or regions.
| Measure | Source | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Projected holiday sales growth | AlixPartners | 4% to 7% |
| Consumers who say economy is worse vs 12 months ago | AlixPartners survey | 57% |
| Consumers intending to spend less | AlixPartners survey | 37% |
| Average monthly spending vs prior year in 2026 | Census data | roughly 5% above prior-year levels |
Case for and against stronger holiday receipts
The case for
- Census data show monthly spending has averaged roughly 5% above prior-year levels through 2026, supporting a positive holiday outcome.
- AlixPartners reports that despite traffic declines some shoppers continue to buy and find creative ways to spend, which can sustain overall sales growth in a split market.
The case against
- AlixPartners' survey finds 57% of consumers view the economy as worse than 12 months ago, a sentiment headwind for discretionary categories.
- Thirty-seven percent of respondents say they intend to spend less this season, which could translate into softer sales if intent moves into realised cuts.
What to be careful about
- Consumer sentiment could deepen and begin to depress realised spending, converting stated intent into actual reductions; this is supported by the 57% reading of worse economic views.
- Retail traffic declines reported by some AlixPartners clients could concentrate losses in specific stores or categories even if aggregate sales rise in the 4%–7% range.
- The national projection masks variation by channel and category, raising the risk of misallocated inventory and staffing at the retailer level.
The bottom line
The available figures point to a cautious optimism: AlixPartners’ 4%–7% projection gives retailers a planning range, but underlying signals pull in both directions. Census-reported spending running roughly 5% above last year supports the upper end of the range even as survey responses show weaker sentiment and intentions to cut spending. Retailers should use the forecast as a baseline and build contingency plans for inventory, promotions and staffing at the category and store level, because the national projection does not guarantee even performance across formats or regions.
What to watch
- Watch for Census monthly retail-sales releases to confirm whether spending remains above prior-year levels through the holiday period; no date has been set.
- Watch for AlixPartners follow-up commentary or updates to its holiday outlook clarifying category or channel performance; no date has been set.
Frequently asked questions
Who produced the 4%–7% holiday sales projection?
The projection comes from AlixPartners and is reported in its '2026 U.S. Retail Holiday Outlook'; the forecast range given is 4% to 7%.
How can sentiment be weak while spending is up?
AlixPartners' survey found 57% of consumers view the economy as worse than a year ago and 37% intend to spend less, yet Census data show spending has averaged roughly 5% above prior-year levels through 2026, indicating a gap between stated intent and revealed behaviour.
What should retailers prioritise given the outlook?
Retailers should plan around the 4%–7% range while keeping flexibility in inventory and promotions because the national projection masks variation by channel and category and some clients report traffic declines.
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