Estimated reading time: 4 minutes · Last updated:
The Mastercard Economics Institute's holiday sales forecast expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles and gas) to rise 5.5% year over year between November 1 and December 24, driven by an 11% jump online and a 3.6% increase in-store. Mastercard attributes the projection to SpendingPulse insights and a compressed shopping calendar: a late Thanksgiving shortens the pre-Christmas window while Cyber Monday falls in November, concentrating online demand into one long weekend. Retailers should treat November as a focal month for both digital traffic and fulfilment capacity planning, and plan promotions to match the shifted cadence.
Key takeaways
- Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) forecasts U.S. holiday sales excluding autos and gas will rise 5.5% year over year for Nov. 1–Dec. 24.
- MEI expects online sales to grow 11% year over year during the holiday window, based on SpendingPulse insights.
- MEI forecasts in-store sales to increase 3.6%, which it says would be the strongest physical retail showing since 2022.
Table of contents
Why Mastercard sees stronger holiday growth
The forecast comes from the Mastercard Economics Institute and draws on SpendingPulse data to track consumer spending across channels. SpendingPulse aggregates card and e-commerce trends to produce a timely view of where shoppers are spending during the holiday period, and MEI uses that series to produce the headline projection of a 5.5% year-over-year rise for Nov. 1–Dec. 24 in sales excluding autos and gas.
MEI’s conclusion rests on two observable forces in the SpendingPulse readings: resilient consumer demand in key categories and a calendar effect that concentrates transactions into a smaller window. With Thanksgiving late this year, the shorter run-up to Christmas and the placement of Cyber Monday in November are expected to amplify spending intensity in November rather than spreading it evenly through December.
Online versus in-store: where the gains lie
MEI projects online sales will grow about 11% year over year over the Nov. 1–Dec. 24 window, while in-store sales are forecast to rise 3.6%. The gap signals that digital channels will carry the heavier lift, but a 3.6% rise in physical retail is notable because MEI describes it as the strongest showing for stores since 2022.
That mix changes operational priorities. Retailers that rely on omnichannel fulfilment must scale digital order handling, returns and buy-online-pick-up-in-store flows for a concentrated November peak. Brick-and-mortar teams should expect higher footfall on promotional days and plan inventory allocations to avoid stockouts that push customers to competitors' online offers.
Timing, promotions and what retailers should change
A later Thanksgiving compresses the shopping calendar and raises the value of early promotion timing; MEI says the calendar shift could encourage retailers to start deals sooner to capture intent before the shortened window. Retailers that wait for traditional Black Friday scheduling risk losing share to competitors that begin promotions earlier or that run sustained November offers centered on the Cyber Monday weekend.
Concentration of online demand into a single long weekend also pressures fulfilment networks and paid-media pacing: marketing budgets will need reallocation toward early-November conversion windows, and distribution centers should enforce surge capacity plans. Merchants should review shipping cutoffs, returns policies and inventory buffers for November to avoid service failures during the concentrated peak.
| Measure | MEI projection | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Holiday sales (ex-auto/gas, Nov.1–Dec.24) | 5.5% year-over-year | Based on SpendingPulse and MEI forecast |
| Online sales | 11% year-over-year | Concentration around Cyber Monday expected |
| In-store sales | 3.6% year-over-year | Strongest physical retail growth since 2022 |
How the cases stack up for this season
The case for
- Concentrated November demand could raise total seasonal spend if shoppers accelerate purchases into the compressed window and retailers capture intent with early promotions.
- Stronger in-store growth (3.6%) supports omnichannel revenue, helping retailers that balance e-commerce and physical experience to protect margins on higher-ticket, in-person transactions.
The case against
- A compressed calendar and concentrated online weekend increase the risk of fulfilment breakdowns and delivery delays that can erode sales if logistics aren’t scaled for the November peak.
- Heavier discounting earlier in the season could compress margins even as headline sales rise, leaving retailers with higher volume but lower profitability.
What to be careful about
- Promotional escalation: retailers starting deals earlier may trigger deeper discounts and reduce average selling prices across the season.
- Fulfilment strain: an 11% online increase concentrated into a shorter period could exceed capacity for smaller retailers and third-party logistics partners.
- Inventory mismatch: stronger-than-expected online demand for specific categories could produce localized stockouts while other SKUs remain overstocked.
- Calendar uncertainty: any change to consumer sentiment or macroeconomic conditions between now and November would alter the SpendingPulse baseline that underpins MEI’s 5.5% projection.
The bottom line
Mastercard Economics Institute’s forecast gives retailers a working scenario: an overall 5.5% holiday sales lift led by an 11% online increase and a notable 3.6% rebound for physical stores. The dominant operational theme is timing — a late Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday in November compress demand into a shorter period, which raises the value of early promotion planning and surge-ready fulfilment. Retailers that align media spend, inventory allocation and distribution capacity to a November-centric peak will be better positioned to convert the projected traffic into profitable seasonal revenue.
What to watch
- Watch spending for the Nov. 1–Dec. 24 holiday window, which is the period MEI uses to measure the projected 5.5% year-over-year gain.
- Watch the Cyber Monday weekend in November 2026 for online traffic and conversion spikes as MEI highlights Cyber Monday’s placement as a concentrate of digital demand.
- Watch whether retailers move promotions earlier in the calendar; the forecast flags earlier promotion starts but gives no firm date for when retailers will begin those campaigns.
Frequently asked questions
Who produced the holiday sales forecast and what data did they use?
The forecast is from the Mastercard Economics Institute and it uses SpendingPulse insights, a series that tracks consumer card and e-commerce spending to measure channel and total retail activity for the holiday window.
How much are online and in-store sales expected to grow?
MEI projects online sales to rise about 11% year over year during Nov. 1–Dec. 24 and forecasts in-store sales to increase 3.6% over the same period.
Why does timing matter for retailers this season?
A late Thanksgiving compresses the shopping calendar and places Cyber Monday in November; MEI says that compression can concentrate demand into November, so retailers should adjust promotion timing, inventory buffers and fulfilment capacity accordingly.
Related reading
